Discuss Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One
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Mission Impossible vs Oppenheimer: Who will win?
posted by wonder2wonderSTAFFMOD on June 22, 2023 at 9:42 AM
This summer it is a battle between "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" and "Oppenheimer (2023)".
There is also "Barbie (2023)", but what chances does a girl have against these tough guys .
Playing with numbers below. Wild guesses? 
IMAX Theatres
"Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" will only get one week showing in the IMAX theatres, from 14-20 July 2023, and "Oppenheimer (2023)" will have the rest of the summer as from 21 July 2023. "Barbie (2023)" gets none.
Winner: "Oppenheimer (2023)"
Box Office
"Oppenheimer (2023)" has a budget of $100 million, "Barbie (2023)" costs $145 million, and "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" costs almost three times as much as "Oppenheimer (2023)": $290 million.
To break even (multiplying factor formula: 2.5-3 x budget): "Oppenheimer (2023)" only needs to make $250-300 million, while "Barbie (2023)" will have to reach $362.5-435 million. "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" faces a mission impossible of $725-870 million.
Final worldwide gross (expected): "Oppenheimer (2023)" ($650-850 million), "Barbie (2023)" ($500-700 million) and "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" ($650-800 million).
Estimated profit (worldwide gross-break even point): "Oppenheimer (2023)" ($350-600 million), "Barbie (2023)" ($65-337.5 million), "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" ($-220-75 million).
"Oppenheimer (2023)" will be screened in the IMAX theatres at least three times longer than "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)", and that means - with every ticket - as much as 70% more profit for "Oppenheimer (2023)".
Winner: "Oppenheimer (2023)"
CinemaScore
"Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)": A
"Oppenheimer (2023)": A
"Barbie (2023)": A
Winner: it's a tie.
Academy Awards
"Oppenheimer (2023)" is a clear winner here, with at least nominations for Best Picture and Best Actor. Many more are expected.
It could be the movie winning the most Oscars in 2024.
Overall winner: "Oppenheimer (2023)"
Above numbers are mostly estimates, so if Tom Cruise can pull another rabbit out of his hat and his movie - notwithstanding the disadvantage of its absence in the IMAX theatres - makes more than a $billion - $1.27 billion to be absolutely sure - "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" stands a chance of beating - earning more than - "Oppenheimer (2023)" at the end of the ride.
Sidenote:
While the machos "Oppenheimer (2023)" and "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" are black and blue after duking it out in their big fight, peachy pink "Barbie (2023)" will be having "Fun, Fun, Fun" this summer. 
Reply by DRDMovieMusings
on September 28, 2023 at 12:02 PM
It's a new Tom Cruise thing. He did it with Top Gun: Maverick leading into the post-lockdown era. Spielberg told Cruise he "saved the industry" (by putting out a fun movie that lots of people returned to the theatres to see) because, for a lot of these people, the theatre experience is part of the product; which is to say, they make movies with the theatre experience in mind, NOT sitting at home watching via streaming (at this point), and they all were concerned about whether or to what degree people might return to theatres to spend money after getting accustomed to watching at home.
The other aspect of the theatre distribution system is that it's mature, and much, much easier to count the beans. Streaming platforms control and do not make transparent their viewership numbers, and there's also no clear revenue stream directly tied to any single movie, so it's very hard for the industry outside of each respective platform to keep score. So, there's a lot of industry interest in keeping the theatre system alive.