My bets would be on:

Imax: Oppenheimer

Total Box Office Take: MI (though Barbie could be the pink horse)

Profitability: Barbie (mainly down to lower costs)

Oscars: Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer might turn out to be one of the greatest films ever made, but I'm struggling to see it as one that pulls in the crowds. Certainly not a "must see theatrically" for me.

If both movies are good, we all win.

Sick and tired of crappy movies. Nolan made a lot of good movies so I’m looking forward to his latest one.

I'd imagine Barbie will be the winner here. Looks like another Lego Movie and will pull in the same crowd as Super Mario Bros.

Probably shooting off a lower budget as well, so success will be easier achieved as well.

I'm curious how much of the cost of MI is split between Part 1 and 2. Front load it on the first movie, then the second movie shows a larger profit. Knowing this was going to be a two part event, how much of that total cost went towards the second movie.

I'm thinking the "Barbenheimer" thing may annoy Christopher Nolan but it will probably provide a reasonable boost to Oppenheimer's BO (and a smaller one to Barbie's).

CinemaScore

"Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)": A

"Oppenheimer (2023)": A

"Barbie (2023)": A

@M.LeMarchand said:

I'm thinking the "Barbenheimer" thing may annoy Christopher Nolan but it will probably provide a reasonable boost to Oppenheimer's BO (and a smaller one to Barbie's).

The Barbenheimer phenomenon was an incredible event for many moviegoers and gave the cinema its much needed boost in ticket sales this year.

As part of a double feature, many 'Barbie' women have also gone to "Oppenheimer (2023)" and its expected domestic box office opening weekend of $40 million is now twice as much: $80.5 million. Together with the international box office ($93.5 million) the total is a whopping $174 million.

This is Nolan's third best opening at the domestic box office, after "The Dark Knight Rises (2012)" ($160.9 million) and "The Dark Knight (2008)" ($158.4 million)

It is now expected to be a big winner at the Oscars 2024.

The casualty here is "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)", which suffered the worst drop - estimated at 64% - of the MI franchise after its second weekend domestic box office was only $19.5 million.

Its total worldwide gross earnings now (24 July 2023) stands at $370 million. If it doesn't rebound in its third weekend, it might not even reach its break even point of at least $725 million.

Yep, looks like I was way out on Oppenheimer. I was leaning towards it being a financial (though not critical) disappointment. I feel a bit sorry for the MI crew as it was a thoroughly entertaining movie that deserved a better reception.

Probably seeing Barbie this weekend, though I'll wait for Oppenheimer to stream as it's one of those that, as someone who enjoys movies, I feel I ought to see but the only draw for me is Nolan.

@Damienracer said:

You're actually going to watch Barbie? Because a bandwagon needs jumping on or because you would actually watch a Barbie movie? Your Oppenheimer decision is good by the way.

When the Barbie movie was announced I had zero interest, but the trailers have sold it to me as it looks far more subversive than a "Barbie" movie. I'll confirm after I've seen it, but I suspect there may be a few disappointed kids/parents.

"Oppenheimer (2023)" has now definitely beaten "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" and could possibly deal a second crushing blow by joining the billion dollar club, as it gets one week extra at the IMAX theatres, with plans to re-release the movie in IMAX in the late summer or fall this year.

... Excerpt from Oppenheimer’s IMAX Run Extended In Huge Blow To Mission Impossible 7 (Which Is Losing Box Office Battle):

In light of its extraordinary performance, IMAX is extending OPPENHEIMER’s run an additional week through August 16/17, with plans to bring-back IMAX showtimes of OPPENHEIMER in the late summer/fall, as availability permits.

I'm still struggling to see the broad appeal of Oppenheimer. Maybe if it was just the US being patriotic, but it seems to be worldwide. Do IMAX takings really make that much of a difference? Here in the UK there aren't many IMAX screens (neither city near me has one). Or has Florence Pugh really got Billion Dollar Boobs? They do say Dennis Villeneuve has called her in for reshoots on Dune Part 2*. Still, this spoof article may have a smidgen of truth as to Nolan's future filmic path.

*I may have made that up.

@M.LeMarchand said:

Do IMAX takings really make that much of a difference? Here in the UK there aren't many IMAX screens (neither city near me has one).

Depending on the location, the theatre and the seating, an IMAX ticket can cost 30%-100% more than a regular - standard - ticket.

Adding to the fact, that some people might - for different reasons - want to see the movie multiple times, the worldwide gross will exceed all expectations.

I'm still struggling to see the broad appeal of Oppenheimer. Maybe if it was just the US being patriotic, but it seems to be worldwide. Or has Florence Pugh really got Billion Dollar Boobs? They do say Dennis Villeneuve has called her in for reshoots on Dune Part 2*. Still, this spoof article may have a smidgen of truth as to Nolan's future filmic path.

*I may have made that up.

"It is the 'Nolan effect'. Nolan's name attached to a movie attracts a lot of people all over the world. Tenet (2020) would have made a billion dollars, if it was released now, even if one could not hear the dialogue. Why? He is Nolan - everyone knows him from his previous movies - and anything he films is assumed to be a masterpiece. He is an artist who demands that his art be shown in the best musea - I mean IMAX - all over the world. You can look at his art and not understand it; you might not even like it, but when you say that you have seen a Nolan movie, everyone will nod their head in admiration."

"If he made a movie about paint drying, the masses would flock to the cinema, because the director is Nolan. You would go again and again, because although it appears to be dull, it is 'a Nolan' and it must have some kind of deeper meaning, subtleties, that you want to understand. Everyone will talk about this new masterpiece. What colours paint are you seeing? How long does it take to dry? Is it happening slower or faster? Are parts of the scenes in reverse? Why are some scenes filmed in black and white? Who is the painter? Why did he or she paint that wall? Is there something hidden behind that wall? And so on."

"The nude and sex scenes are 'essential' to Oppenheimer (2023). Why? Only Nolan knows and you will know too, even if it takes you multiple times of viewing, and you must see it in IMAX or else that little detail might escape your attention. When you finally understand, you will become one of the enlightened."

"The long dialogues will go over the head of the majority of the audience, but that is all right - it will give them the opportunity to go to the restroom, take a cat nap or use their smartphone. Of course there are also the few, who will want to discuss the political, cultural, social, moral and ethical issues afterwards."

"If nudity and long dialogues are not enough to pique your interest, then there is 'Da Bomb'. Who doesn't want to witness a nuclear explosion in IMAX so as to be able to say 'I came, I saw, I lived to tell'?"

After the movie, many, if not most - especially the females - realize that it is just a biopic written and directed by the great Nolan, and they got carried away by the Barbenheimer phenomenon, which has gone global and is still going strong. One is best seen at the cinema, the other at home. It is up to every individual to decide which one and not to allow this phenomenon dictate their choice.

Outside of the USA there are many regrets - 'sorry no refunds' - but there are also Americans who are disappointed and would have probably just seen "Oppenheimer (2023)" at home - saving them the price of a ticket - if it was not for Barbenheimer and the Nolan effect.

@wonder2wonder said:

This summer it is a battle between "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" and "Oppenheimer (2023)".

There is also "Barbie (2023)", but what chances does a girl have against these tough guys .

Thus far, she's kicking both their asses!

Playing with numbers below. Wild guesses?

IMAX Theatres

"Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" will only get one week showing in the IMAX theatres, from 14-20 July 2023, and "Oppenheimer (2023)" will have the rest of the summer as from 21 July 2023. "Barbie (2023)" gets none.

Winner: "Oppenheimer (2023)"

Box Office

"Oppenheimer (2023)" has a budget of $100 million, "Barbie (2023)" costs $145 million, and "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" costs almost three times as much as "Oppenheimer (2023)": $290 million.

To break even (multiplying factor formula: 2.5-3 x budget): "Oppenheimer (2023)" only needs to make $250-300 million, while "Barbie (2023)" will have to reach $362.5-435 million. "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" faces a mission impossible of $725-870 million.

Barbie soaring at $800M and it's not even into its 3rd weekend. Smoking!

Oppenheimer has hit $434M covering your calculation of its nut.

M:I — DRPO has a ways to go, having only mustered $451MN thus far. That said, it's historically highly rated. One would expect that to give it legs, but it's limping thus far.

Final worldwide gross (expected): "Oppenheimer (2023)" ($650-850 million), "Barbie (2023)" ($500-700 million) and "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" ($650-800 million).

Estimated profit (worldwide gross-break even point): "Oppenheimer (2023)" ($350-600 million), "Barbie (2023)" ($65-337.5 million), "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" ($-220-75 million).

"Oppenheimer (2023)" will be screened in the IMAX theatres at least three times longer than "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)", and that means - with every ticket - as much as 70% more profit for "Oppenheimer (2023)".

Winner: "Oppenheimer (2023)"

Makes sense.

CinemaScore

"Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)": A

"Oppenheimer (2023)": A

"Barbie (2023)": A

Winner: it's a tie.

Kudos to all teams for delivering movies their fans embrace.

Academy Awards

"Oppenheimer (2023)" is a clear winner here, with at least nominations for Best Picture and Best Actor. Many more are expected.

It could be the movie winning the most Oscars in 2024.

I don't track awards and have nothing of material value to add here.

Overall winner: "Oppenheimer (2023)"

Above numbers are mostly estimates, so if Tom Cruise can pull another rabbit out of his hat and his movie - notwithstanding the disadvantage of its absence in the IMAX theatres - makes more than a $billion - $1.27 billion to be absolutely sure - "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" stands a chance of beating - earning more than - "Oppenheimer (2023)" at the end of the ride.

Sidenote:

While the machos "Oppenheimer (2023)" and "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part 1 (2023)" are black and blue after duking it out in their big fight, peachy pink "Barbie (2023)" will be having "Fun, Fun, Fun" this summer.

She sure is!

@M.LeMarchand said:

When the Barbie movie was announced I had zero interest, but the trailers have sold it to me as it looks far more subversive than a "Barbie" movie. I'll confirm after I've seen it, but I suspect there may be a few disappointed kids/parents.

Actually saw this a few days back, but been a bit busy. Not as funny as I was expecting, though I was laughing so hard at one point that water leaked from my eyes, but otherwise pretty much what I was expecting: A film Which hinges on Barbie, but not a movie for little girls who are still playing with their Barbies. Someone needs to put Gosling in a proper musical!* The only real disappointment I had was that the resolution seemed to ignore the problems that caused the upset in Barbieland and the small concession towards equality didn't sit right. I guess it could have been a subtle nod towards the way things change IRL.

Most of the regular TMDb male posters will love Kenworld and cry when .

Totally unscientific observation: Bookings for Oppenheimer at the same time were about 1/4 full in a small screen (actually a good result at our cinema) whilst Barbie was around 2/3 and the eventual showing was the busiest I've seen the big screen since pre-Covid days. Lots of groups of women in pink making a fun night out of it.

• "La La Land" doesn't count as Jazz is not music.

@M.LeMarchand said:

• "La La Land" doesn't count as Jazz is not music.

?